Nassim Nicholas Taleb, NECSI, COVID, Complex Systems, Black Swan Events, Extreme Weather Events, Weather Derivatives, Bitcoin, Sentiment Analysis, Particle Physics, Foresight/Horizon Scanning

https://realworldrisk.com

Prior to global lockdowns, in January, 2020 Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar Yam, and Nassim Taleb submitted a paper to the White House administration, urging them to take drastic steps to curtail the disease. NECSI later assembled EndCoronaVirus.org, which included over 4,000 volunteers by March 21, 2020. The network of volunteers built endCoronavirus.org with the goal to minimize the impact of COVID-19 by providing useful data and guidelines for action.

Since 2009, the Institute’s research focus has shifted to socio-economic systems, with particular attention to the causes and consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and dynamics of Twitter networks and social sentiment. Policy-relevant articles on stock market regulation and market crashes, food riots and the causes of high food prices, and the European bond crisis have been released straight to the press.

Transition to Extinction — New England Complex Systems Institute (Yaneer Bar-Yam on pandemics in a connected world in July 2016)

Taleb connects us directly to both COVID catastrophism and CLIMATE catastrophism (including extreme weather events).

Taleb’s son — Alexander Taleb — works in aerospace as a propulsion systems engineer:

https://www.zoominfo.com/p/Alexander-Taleb/-1541860416

LOCATION
Austin, TX, US
WORK

Propulsion Systems Engineer @ Syncroness
Propulsion Engineer @ Generation Orbit Launch Services, Inc.
Mechanical Design Engineer @ Delta Air Lines Global Services, LLC
Design Engineer @ Firefly Space Systems
Summer Intern @ Spacex

https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/syncroness
https://altenusa.com (Syncroness is now Alten Technology)

Taleb’s associate at NECSISandy Pentland: Sandy Pentland — New England Complex Systems Institute.

Alex`Sandy’ Pentland has helped create and direct MIT’s Media Lab, the Media Lab Asia, and the Center for Future Health. He chairs the World Economic Forum’s Data Driven Development council, is Academic Director of the Data-Pop Alliance, and is a member of the Advisory Boards for Google, Nissan, Telefonica, the United Nations Secretary General, Monument Capital, and the Minerva Schools.

Taleb’s mentor/faculty advisor, Helyette Geman, is a pivotal figure — if not pioneer — in weather, insurance, and electricity derivatives.

https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/31105/

• Her work on Catastrophe Futures and Options
• Her work on probability distributions, specifically the “CGMY” Lévy process named after Carr, Helyette Geman, Madan and Yor.
• Her 2005 book on Commodities Derivatives.
• Her book ‘Insurance, Weather and Electricity Derivatives: From Exotic Options to Exotic Underlyings’, 1999, Risk Books.
• Her work on ‘Bitcoins and Commodities’
• Being the PhD supervisor of Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Helyette Geman, a research professor in applied mathematics and statistics, focuses on mathematical finance. Her career has comprised sub-disciplines, including the finance of commodities, insurance, and probability theory.

She received an MS in Atomic/Molecular Physics and a PhD in Mathematical Statistics and Probability from Pierre and Marie Curie University, as well as another PhD in Finance at the University of Paris I: Panthéon-Sorbonne.

I should mention that with Taleb’s doctoral advisor, we return to the climate narrative:

Professor Geman counts many brilliant characters among her past and present PhD students, among them Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan. She is the President of the Society ‘Women for Climate.’

https://www.genealogy.math.ndsu.nodak.edu/id.php?id=213191

Her other advisee (as per genealogy link above) — Fabio Trojani:

https://www.genealogy.math.ndsu.nodak.edu/id.php?id=140343

Game theory, economics, social and behavioral sciences

Branching out one more degree from Taleb — Lawrence Habahbeh:

https://www.theactuary.com/2022/07/26/complexity-challenge-understanding-complicated-risks

Lawrence Habahbeh proposes a framework for understanding these more complicated risks. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a renewed focus on enterprise risk management. It has caused firms to reflect on the effectiveness of their frameworks for categorising, planning, preparing, and mitigating the effects of emerging extreme risks.

Extreme emerging risks – such as pandemics, solar storms, multiple and simultaneous severe weather events, mass cyber attacks, volcano eruptions with global impacts, and large-scale terrorist attacks – are significantly more complex than, and different from, traditional risks. These risks manifest in a variety of discrete, linked and compound events, and have cascading consequences.

A State of Flux in the World Order | Diplomatist (work on both COVID and CLIMATE narratives)

Returning to Taleb’s associate and co-author, Yaneer Bar-Yam (see his pivotal work in COVID strategies, that guided American policy on lockdowns, contact tracing, travel restrictions, etc. etc etc):

https://yaneer.world/about/
https://yaneer.world/full-bio/

As a complex systems practitioner, Yaneer uses an innovative discipline of subterranean mathematical calculation to explain and predict global trends, such as food scarcity, ethnic cleansing, evolutionary biology, election outcomes, and pandemics, including COVID-19.

Aureet, died on January 7, 1991, at the age of 33, drowning as she tried to pull her dog, Flame, out of the icy water of Sandy Pond in Lincoln, Mass.

US Patent for Event detection and characterization in big data streams Patent (Patent # 10,191,956 issued January 29, 2019) - Justia Patents Search (his patent – training supercomputers/Voronoi space partition algorithms)

The memory locations where data bits are maintained are physical locations that have particular electrical, magnetic, optical, or organic properties corresponding to the data bits.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/28185791_Voronoi-Based_Space_Partitioning_for_Coordinated_Multi-Robot_Exploration

Yaneer Bar-Yam’s father — Zvi Bar-Yam — is a high-energy particle physicist:

http://www.hadron.physics.fsu.edu/~e852/members/baryam.html
http://www.hadron.physics.fsu.edu/~e852/members/memberslist.html
Opening Up — New England Complex Systems Institute (co-author with Yaneer on how to transition the population to open back up during COVID)

I wrote about black swan events (in the context of the COVID weaponized narrative and foresight/horizon scanning) in December 2020: Part 1: A Star is Born ~ Ascent of the Techno-S’pore and the Descent of Man – Piece of Mindful.

5) This document titled “Society at Risk — Hunting Black Swans and Taming Black Elephants,” was presented by Peter Ho, Senior Advisor, Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF), on December 5, 2016, at a Conference called “Disrupted Balance — Societies at Risk.” It references Singapore’s “resilient response” to the reported SARS epidemic in 2002-2003, involving mitigation approaches such as “Whole-of-Government” and contact tracing — two strategies which have been applied to the current scenario.

Click to access 2016-12-05-peter-ho—society-at-risk.pdf

2 Likes

Thank you @Stephers - do you seen “crone” imprinted in that company name?
@leo and @Jason_Bosch I think we should incorporate some of this into next week’s talk. It seems very important.

2 Likes

@AMcD

Yes, I see “crone” and I see “sync” . . .

Definition of crone

: a cruel or ugly old woman… chocolate-colored rock formations that look like giant toadstools, fat old crones, and creatures from a bad dream.— Elaine Jarvik

For example, in Norse mythology the God Thor wrestled the crone Elli.

It is all about ARCHETYPES when it comes to stories and logos and corporations (think conjuring corporeal in spellcasting).

I also see the perfect anagrams of:

Norse syncs
nyc sensors
sensor sync

1 Like